Malvern, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

555
FXUS64 KLZK 060806
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
306 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

-Above normal temperatures and increased humidity are expected
 across much of the state through the weekend. Temperatures will
 hovering at or around normal by early next week.

-Frequent chances for rain and thunderstorms with a few strong to
 severe thunderstorms possible.

-Locally heavy rainfall amounts of more than 3 inches possible
 across western/northern Arkansas through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Regional radar early this morning shows a complex of strong to
severe thunderstorms across portions of the Oklahoma & Texas
panhandles. Another complex was located south of Amarillo with
both complexes expected to move east southeast through this
morning. Hi-res CAM guidance this morning shows both complexes
will congeal into an MCS later this morning over west central and
central Oklahoma. The MCS will move east-southeast across
Arkansas just after sunrise this morning. Ahead of the complex,
CAPE values of 1500-2000J/kg with bulk shear of 35-40 kts over
portions of northwestern, western and central Arkansas with the
primary hazard being damaging winds, but some large hail is also
possible as MCS treks southeast across the state. Both the HRRR
and RAP show the complex decaying as it moves southeast into
central and eastern Arkansas by sometime late this morning. This
makes sense as instability will around the daily minimal as the
MCS moves across the state.

Another round of showers with strong to severe thunderstorms will
be possible late tonight into early Saturday as a piece of upper
level energy embedded within the flow moves across the area
helping to initiate a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms
across portions of southeastern Kansas and north central and
northeastern Oklahoma. The primary hazard as the complex of storms
moves across Arkansas will be damaging winds, but some large hail
is also possible as well.

By Saturday night, upper low and long wave upper trough will dive
southeastern out of Canada into the Great Lakes region with upper
level northwest flow setting up over Arkansas. Within northwest
flow, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible as
the front quickly moves southeastward through the state on Sunday
before stalling over southern Arkansas. Additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms are possible through as upper level
disturbances embedded within northwestern flow help to kick off
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm through Tuesday in
southern Arkansas. Lingering chances for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in are the forecast through the latter
part of the week as upper level impulses move within west to
southwest flow over southern Arkansas as the upper trough/low
move toward the northeastern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Light and variable winds will persist through the very early
morning hours across the state. A complex of showers and
thunderstorms currently over portions of southern Kansas and
northeastern and north central Oklahoma will move into the
northwest Arkansas around 10-11z and move southeast through the
morning. The complex of storms will likely impact northern
terminals around 12z as it moves east southeast.An analysis of the
latest CAMs shows the complex of storms decaying as it reaching
terminals in central and south central Arkansas. Terminals impact
will likely see a short duration of MVFR/IFR conditions with
gusty winds. Otherwise, light S/SW winds and VFR conditions will
prevail through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  70  84  69 /  70  50  80  50
Camden AR         91  74  93  70 /  20  10  20  60
Harrison AR       82  68  82  65 /  90  70  90  30
Hot Springs AR    88  70  90  68 /  50  20  40  60
Little Rock   AR  88  73  89  72 /  40  30  50  60
Monticello AR     92  75  93  73 /  20  10  30  60
Mount Ida AR      88  70  90  67 /  60  20  50  60
Mountain Home AR  82  67  81  65 /  90  70  90  40
Newport AR        87  71  85  69 /  70  50  80  60
Pine Bluff AR     90  73  91  71 /  30  20  40  70
Russellville AR   85  70  86  69 /  70  50  70  50
Searcy AR         86  71  87  69 /  50  40  70  60
Stuttgart AR      88  74  89  72 /  30  40  50  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly